Party Unity? The Death Throes of Neo-Conservatism

In the context of this election, I find this title hilarious; but moving on. Lets take a moment to talk about the loss of the Republican brand, and the Republican Brand as we know its architect really is none other than Newt Gingrich, who, during the 90’s managed to put the Republicans in control of Congress and be the constant fly buzzing around giant of the Clinton’s ears. That fly flew and flew and flew until, by the end of Clinton’s reign, it had collected a swarm of hornets all attacking with an angry buzz of Ken Starr and depositing the eggs in the ailing legacy of President Clinton, of one George W. Bush. Though Gingrich was out not long after that, the brand created by that ugly little fly peaked in the time immediately after 9/11 into the Republican springtime. 7 years later that wilting flower is diseased and suffering from rot around the roots.

The brand that Gingrich built was based on the three bases of support for the Republican Party: Defense Hawks, Fiscal Conservatives and Social Conservatives. Indeed, since the “red turn” of the American South away from the Democratic Party, this had always been the Republican bases of support. During Reagan’s time he had appealed to the core of all of these three factions which was how he was able to swing Democrats who had some shared concerns with one of these three groups. Gingrich was different. Out of the White House, he instead chose to co-opt the most energetic portions of each faction, or the more extreme wings, to use it as part of a 3 pronged attack against the presidency. It was largely pretty effective and it had its heyday on September 11th when Christian Evangelicals had their opportunity to preach the backslide of American culture, the defense hawks could really lay in the criticisms of the Clinton foreign policy and gear up for a war against America’s great new enemy (they are more of the “you don’t define greatness by the good of your friends but more the power of your enemies” philosophy) and fiscal conservatives, already terrified of the Democrats, could tout Bush’s 9 month economic golden period and blame the economic slump post 9/11 on failed Clinton economic plans (war also means golden opportunities to deregulate industry). It really was Republican heaven, all brought together by Gingrich’s plan and by one Republican saint. The name for this new movement? Neo-Conservatism.

Now Bush’s approval ratings are in the toilet and the defense hawks are keeping him tied to Iraq while the fiscal conservatives are screaming for him to get out. The evangelical wing is starting to have some real doubts about Iraq (though many believe it is an opportunity to miss ionize the middle east where in their own quirky minds democratizing = Christianizing) and everybody and i mean everybody is doing somersaults about the economy. The Hawks and the Evangelicals, instead of cooperating in strategy are competing for Bush’s dithering attention and the fiscal conservatives are choking on the dust. Meanwhile 40% of evangelicals are expected to vote for Obama and Ron Paul appears to be on the edge of a defection, with other like minded fiscal conservative Republicans with him.

Why is this? The grand dictum put together by Newt Gingrich has been overly successful. You see, when energizing the extreme wings of the different Republican Party factions Newt was only able to maintain unity one way; by letting everyone know that if you didn’t get on the bus, you’d be thrown under it. The Republican factions were able to unite during the 90’s because they weren’t having to compete in the areas where their ideologies disparaged each other. Out of the White House, they didn’t have to gain legislative success, they only had to create Democratic distress, and that they did very well. Once they had the White House the tragedy of 9/11 kept them united for longer than what would have been natural. However, during Bush’s first 4 years, when they controlled every branch of the government, they still largely spoiled it.

Meanwhile, the Democrats tolerance for division in their own ranks has kept them healthy. Though most Dems voted for Iraq they weren’t intolerant to those who didn’t, and so Obama, who was vocal in his opposition, could still climb the ranks. They’ve been tolerant of a new kind of Southern socially conservative democrat, exemplified by Jim Webb and their recent wins in the special elections, and so have been able to steal from the Republican base. Meanwhile, attempts to maintain party unity have further enraged fiscal conservatives and anti-war evangelicals. Even Newt, who I believes shrewd mind knows that Guantanamo is not very popular anymore with the American people, is still playing the good little soldier.

Now, in an attempt to save their brand the Republican party has selected a candidate who was popular with fiscal conservatives and hawks, but despised by social conservatives. In the name of party unity the party has been trying to elbow social conservatives in behind McCain, and McCain has been pandering to social conservatives. Instead of uniting the party, it has just left all factions dissatisfied with the results. A the same time McCain continues to damage his credibility with Reagan Democrats and independents.

Could be why its not only looking like the Republicans may lose the presidency, but both Howard Dean and chairman of the NRSC Ensign agree that the Republicans will probably lose a minimum of 4 Senate seats this year as well. Suits me fine.

-Marc-