Stay Positive

I posted this comment in response to someone else’s post, but I liked it enough to repeat it here. It’s my theory on how John McCain and Hillary Clinton, two sharp political veterans, managed to completely blow it against a rookie Senator with the middle name “Hussein”. Every blogger has some version of this story (or will soon) and I figured I’d have a whack at my own thoughts. The stab of the comment was at this article, which was a non-hysterical, semi-reasonable argument against Obama.

As for the article, while I see their arguments and understand them, even if I don’t agree with them (and there is a lot of argument there so I won’t go line by line with my oppositions) I can quite simply and easily lay down why none of it will change minds, or even, in the end, matter.

Because in this world its not good enough to just be “against” something. You have to be for yourself, or your guy, in the race before you’re opposed to anything.

Obama has intelligently and deftly used this against all of his opponents.

In a political culture which feeds off the politics of the attack he has been very successful in getting the candidates to do nothing but zero in on his weaknesses, ultimately to their own detriment. And at face value he has quite a few weaknesses to the American mainstream, associations, questionable looking votes, etc..

When Hillary zeroed in all this her campaign took on a look of hysteria and floundered in the polls, and it wasn’t until later she learned she had to stress herself and her own good policies instead of continually deriding Obama. By the time she figured it out, she was too late to catch up in the polls.

McCain started his first negative attack in June and since then it has been non stop negativity, just to see his continually backwards slide in the polls. Worse, McCain and Hillary both began to believe in their mantra of negativity and I think both, have a serious dislike of Obama.

While they attack, the American people judge. Much like with Bush in 2000, despite his past coke use, rich background, failed run as the CEO of several companies and a mixed performance as governor, the American people sized him up at face value, decided they liked him as he was then, and short of any other arguments against him, voted for him.

The same has happened with Obama, as people become more familiar with him, they become comfortable with his cool, calm demeanor, and they hear calls for “Hope” and “Change.” He talks about healthcare and taxes, and in the end he seems more for himself than merely against McCain.

And if he is winning, that is why.

So instead of making continually arguments against Obama conservatives would be better served in making arguments for McCain, but I think the dirty secret is that they aren’t to crazy about him either.

If Obama wins, the narrative will be undoubtedly of a tortoise and a hare. The cooler and calmer character wins, not only because Americans have more faith in that personality, but because it inevitably outlasts attacks.

The truth is that Obama’s covered in so many low hanging fruit for the “attack-attack-attack” personalities in today’s political machine, that they wore themselves on it. Polls overwhelmingly indicate that by this point in the campaign people have become completely immune to negative advertising, and in many cases are completely turned off by them.

And when McCain has gone as far as to put out a 100% negative ad campaign, he scripted his own demise.

You tell him Oddball.

-Marc-